September 2025 Mobility & Consumption Minute: global car sales rise while uncertainty takes hold

In September 2025, two complementary trends stand out:

The global automotive market is expected to grow by 1.5%, driven largely by Asia
Uncertainty has become one of the defining features of the new economic season, directly influencing purchasing decisions

Mobility Minute: a global car market approaching 90 million vehicles

Global car sales are expected to increase by 1.5% in 2025, bringing the market close to 90 million vehicles.

But the global average conceals sharply different regional trajectories.

Asia is driving growth, Europe is stagnating, and the United States is expected to contract.

What you need to know

– close to 90 million vehicles expected to be sold worldwide, up 1.5%;
– United States: around 15.5 million vehicles, down 2.5%, with the market affected by tariffs;
– Europe: 11.3 million vehicles, broadly stable but still well below pre-pandemic levels;
– China: 27 million vehicles expected, up 4.5%, and the world’s largest automotive market since 2009;
– Japan: growth of more than 4%;
– India: expected to pass the symbolic threshold of 5 million vehicles for the first time, up 3%.

To understand what this shift towards Asia means for the European automotive industry:

👉 Discover the full analysis on the Cetelem Observatory

Find out about the latest Auto 2025 study by l’Observatoire Cetelem

In 2011, l’Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile took an interest in the under-30s, then called the “Generation Y”.

Nearly 15 years later, it looks at Generation Z, who succeeded them, in a new study that evaluates their relationship with the automobile in a context of market downturn, slowing inflation and debates on the transition to electric.

Carried out in 14 countries, among 16,000 people, the study by l’Observatoire de l’Auto 2025 is rich in lessons.

Consumption Minute: uncertainty defines the start of the 2025 season

Political uncertainty and budget uncertainty are combining to shape the economic environment.

Economic research consistently shows that uncertainty encourages wait-and-see behaviour.

In practical terms, households postpone major purchases and businesses delay projects.

One reason consumers can afford to wait is that French households are already highly equipped with many durable goods.

What you need to know

– the start of the 2025 season is marked by both political and budget uncertainty;
– uncertainty encourages wait-and-see behaviour among economic actors;
– households and businesses apply a precautionary approach to purchases and investment;
– postponing purchases is made easier by already high levels of household ownership of durable goods;
– during previous economic shocks, both households and businesses demonstrated a strong capacity to adapt.

To understand how uncertainty creates wait-and-see behaviour and what this means for consumer spending:

👉 Discover the full analysis on the Cetelem Observatory

Find out about the latest Conso 2025 study by l’Observatoire Cetelem

In 2023, the Cetelem Consumer Observatory took an interest in the low-cost market and its extension. Today, we look at the evolution of consumption in France, which is very different from that of a few years ago. If you want to dig a little deeper into the subject, discover the complete European study by the Cetelem Observatory on consumption in 2025

Find out about the latest Consumption study

Two scales, one underlying mechanism

The global automotive market is growing, yet Europe remains broadly stagnant.

At the same time, French households are postponing major purchases.

These two developments are closely connected.

The wait-and-see behaviour highlighted in the Consumption Minute helps explain the weakness of the European automotive market: when uncertainty rises, replacing a car is one of the easiest major purchases to postpone.

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