April 2025 Mobility & Consumption Minute: long-distance coaches turn 10, who really pays tariffs?
Every month, the Mobility Minute and the Consumption Minute explore two major trends transforming consumer behaviour in France and across Europe.
Presented by Flavien Neuvy, economist and Director of the Cetelem Observatory, these two analyses provide a one-minute overview of the developments shaping the mobility and consumer markets.
In April 2025, two issues stand out:
- Ten years after the market was liberalised, long-distance coach services carry more than six million passengers a year
- A significant share of the cost of US tariffs is ultimately likely to be borne by American consumers.
Mobility Minute: France’s “Macron coaches” turn 10
The law of 6 August 2015, introduced by Emmanuel Macron when he was Minister of the Economy, allowed private operators to provide long-distance intercity coach services in France.
The reform was heavily criticised at the time amid concerns that lower-cost coach services could draw passengers away from rail.
Ten years later, the figures tell a different story.
More than six million passengers travelled by long-distance coach in 2024, a record, while France’s national rail operator SNCF has also continued to record very high passenger numbers.
What you need to know
– the market was liberalised under the law of 6 August 2015;
– around 100,000 passengers used these services before the reform;
– more than six million passengers travelled by coach in 2024, a record;
– around seven million passengers are expected in 2025;
– fears that coaches would cannibalise rail travel have not materialised, with SNCF also reaching record passenger levels;
– long-distance coaches provide a lower-cost way to travel.
To understand why the expected competition with rail did not materialise and who these new coach passengers really are:
👉 Discover the full analysis on the Cetelem Observatory
Find out about the latest Auto 2025 study by l’Observatoire Cetelem
In 2011, l’Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile took an interest in the under-30s, then called the “Generation Y”.
Nearly 15 years later, it looks at Generation Z, who succeeded them, in a new study that evaluates their relationship with the automobile in a context of market downturn, slowing inflation and debates on the transition to electric.
Carried out in 14 countries, among 16,000 people, the study by l’Observatoire de l’Auto 2025 is rich in lessons.
Consumption Minute: who will actually pay US tariffs?
When tariffs increase, three economic actors can potentially absorb the additional cost:
the exporter, the importer and the final consumer.
Exporting companies may lower their selling prices. Importers may accept lower margins. But part of the increase can also be passed on through higher retail prices.
Research published by the NBER on the 2018 tariff episode provides a quantified answer: around 60% of the increase was ultimately borne by American consumers.
What you need to know
– three actors can absorb the impact: the exporter, the importer and the consumer;
– exporters can lower their selling prices, while importers can reduce their margins;
– according to NBER research, around 60% of the 2018 tariff increase was ultimately paid by American consumers;
– the expected short-term impact is higher inflation in the United States;
– this could subsequently weigh on US household consumption.
To understand how tariffs are passed through the supply chain and the knock-on effects they can have on the global economy:
👉 Discover the full analysis on the Cetelem Observatory
Find out about l’Observatoire Cetelem new 2025 consumer study
In 2023, the Cetelem Consumer Observatory took an interest in the low-cost market and its extension. Today, we look at the evolution of consumption in France, which is very different from that of a few years ago. If you want to dig a little deeper into the subject, discover the complete European study by the Cetelem Observatory on consumption in 2025
Two issues, one question of purchasing power
On one side is a reform that enabled millions of people in France to travel at a lower cost.
On the other is a trade measure that can increase the prices paid by American households.
In both cases, the underlying issue is the same: how public policy affects household purchasing power.
One reform widened access through greater competition.
The other creates a barrier that can make imported products more expensive.
FAQ – April 2025 Mobility & Consumption Minute
- When were long-distance coach services liberalised in France?
The market was liberalised under the law of 6 August 2015, introduced by Emmanuel Macron when he was Minister of the Economy. - How many passengers use long-distance coaches in France?
More than six million passengers travelled by coach in 2024, a record, and around seven million are expected in 2025. - Have long-distance coaches taken passengers away from trains?
The initial fears have not materialised. Long-distance coach use has increased strongly while SNCF has also recorded very high passenger numbers. - What is the difference between a bus and a coach?
A bus is primarily designed for urban or local services and may allow passengers to stand. A coach is designed for longer-distance travel, with passengers seated throughout the journey. - Who actually pays tariffs?
According to NBER research into the 2018 tariff episode, around 60% of the increase in tariffs was ultimately borne by American consumers. - What impact can tariffs have on the US economy?
They can increase inflation in the short term by raising the price of imported goods, which can subsequently weigh on household consumption. - Where can the full analyses be found?
Both analyses are available on the Cetelem Observatory website, respectively in its Automotive and Consumption sections.
